But the US has strategic energy interests in Australia so perhaps they will not abandon us or sell us out with their own self interests are at stake. Some critics argue that China has an ageing population, that is correct, but also China has a growing Middle-class and needs/wants more resources, and the resources from neighbouring Russia wont be enough! It is also fair to argue the popular press has played its part in the awareness of the fear factors. Articles that have appeared in the press recently include China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific,[2] New vertical Chinese map gives greater emphasis to South China Sea claims,[3] Return of the samurai: Japan steps away from pacifist constitution as military eyes threat from China,[4] Long March Out of China;[5] and one of the most recent which offers an historical, rather than a straight contemporary assessment, is Paul Monks Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI [World War One],[6] which highlights the course of war being the outcome of particular political processes. Updated at 01.00 EST Also I have no understanding at all of international politics. Similarly, China can regularise and intensify cyber-attacks on Australian key assets to cause more disruption and inflict more damage. Don't miss a thing! Jacqui Lambie warns that a Chinese invasion of Australia is a frightening possibility. [8] Gabriel Kolko. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". Australia cut. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), said that in the case of war breaking out between China and Taiwan, Australia would be pulled into the conflict by the US. The creation of the Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise is supposed to address some of these concerns. You can upload: image, audio, video, document, spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, code, other. Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. And correspondingly, where to place the US? The point for Australians to understand is it is a WWII-based belief to assume that the US will come to Australias aid immediately, or as a follow-up to any Chinese show of force. The way in which this has happened includes both military and political realms: the forcing of democracy on Japan at the end of World War Two (WWII) by the US and Allied powers; winning the Korean War by United Nations forces; and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989. Australia also has rare earths and God knows what PNG has still yet? But its most chilling claim is around a small airport built in West Australias remote northwest. One upshot of her comment/s is that the military rise of China is now out in the public sphere and the massive impact this will have on Australia is finally beyond the hallways of the Department of Defence in Canberra. War with China is just a silly sensationalist drivel. Required fields are marked *, Attachment The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. The power generation and water desalination plant, together with the bunker fuel capacity, provide the necessary logistics to provide a large ground force equipped with heavy equipment, he adds. China has moved in a truly global direction and is on a pathway that was triggered, and then further stimulated, by Premier Deng Xiaoping who started the process in the mid-1980s. The coming state-of-affairs for Australia will be one surviving the numerous upcoming protracted and friction-filled escalations and the ever-greater political and military demands China will inevitably make. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. Similarly, the PLAs Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations. Countries like Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US. For peace to come about either locally or globally, a major reappraisal of Language and all the edifices of modern life are called into question. Reported suspensions would cut Australian exports by up to $6 billion. With regard to soft power China is critically aware of the political ramifications of Australias poorly thought through foreign policies, and in particular the rage that these have created throughout Indonesia. Australia has no political leader capable of seeing the futility of following the US line in Asia. We pay our respect to Elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. Or so it seems. Your email address will not be published. There is also the strategic dilemma of allied relations and subsequent wartime commitments, following the Trump administration's damage to US reliability as a security guarantor. The largest ever Australian warship sunk in battle, HMAS . War is a fools game and China knows it. Back in the 1970s, the US cut a deal with Saudi Arabia at the time the worlds biggest oil producer calling for the US to prop up the kingdoms corrupt monarchy in return for a Saudi pledge that it would accept only dollars in return for oil. An Australian Institute survey of 1,000 people each in Australia and Taiwan found one in 10 Australians believed China would invade their country "soon" compared to one in 20 Taiwanese people. Returning to the initial centrepiece of Lambies argument and notion of whether Australia is in danger of being invaded in the traditional sense of the term. November 9, 2021, 6:22 AM. This article was first posted on Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission. Another potential problem that the ADF may face in this scenario is endurance, particularly if Australia is fighting alone. Ill give a dollar to anyone who actually read all that. As the late ex-PM, Mr Fraser warned us, dont count on America in saving Australia, from an potential attack from China, America can no longer even save itself ! We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris: OECD, 2003, 258. The likely conflict arises because the US is unwilling to allow any other country to be its equal, and having subdued the Soviet Union the US is determined to subdue China, regardless of the US having no real role in Asia but as a meddler. War and the arming for war is the defining rationale behind the (dominant) Western Economies. Sign up to the Daily Star's newsletter. Australia has fallen out with China in recent years over significant geopolitical issues, including Beijing's territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and the COVID-19 pandemic. Historical Statistics. News By Simon Green Assistant Editor (Digital) 15:20, 15 FEB 2019 Updated 20:17, 15 FEB 2019 Video Loading United Australia Party leader warns of Chinese takeover Analysts say the threat of China on Australia's doorstop isn't about invasion; it's about much more immediate short-term concerns, such as Beijing improving intelligence gathering and monitoring. Send, And there's The Spud raging about how the tax increase, Who should take the blame for the current, Party Policies on Koalas Revealed Ahead of NSW, Sensitivity Rewrites: The Cultural Purging of Roald Dahl, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932, http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html, http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world, MP Tudge Leaves In Order To Spend Less Time With. The Transformation of China. The Agenda. Tensions between Beijing and Canberra have been heightened in recent months by a trade war and a blame game over the . Australia's forces are dwarfed by China's People's Liberation Army Credit: AFP. Nations that acceded to British demands, either as a protectorate that was accorded all of the security and safety Britain could muster or, alternately, Britain used force. The evidence is Americas slow reaction to commenting on and having a greater involvement in the South China Sea tensions in a more immediate manner which is in direct contrast to its role in the Cold War years. As the decade toward 2025 grinds on the massive influence China will have will cause the displacement of Australias and as such, the Chinese will not automatically accept Australias definitions of how the A-P should be controlled: this will cause problems. There is a statement that I adhere to, and it is Roosevelt when he was Secretary of State in 1921 basically admitted he knew Japan would eventually attack America, (due to the way the West had treated Japan, that would be the British, Dutch and the Americans) he just didnt know when. The question of fuel deposits, which has to be replenished regularly, remains. Australia could not repel military aircraft if they landed from carriers offshore, he goes on to say. Could you imagine well funded gorilla network in Australia. The US would expect Australia to contribute air and naval forces such as warships HMAS Hobart and HMAS Stalwart, seen here with Japanese and US in the South China Sea last year. Youll like it even more knowing that your donation will help us to keep up the good fight. God help our descendents. [5] Andrew Browne. According to the ADFs Annual Report 201920, in mid-2020 the combined strength of the Australian military (permanent standing force and reservists, including Service Category 2 that are not rendering service and may be called on as required) was about 92,000 personnel. Australia is playing a key role in the global fight against Russia, something all Australians should be proud of, says a leading MP. China is a completely different because it has a pax-Sino in mind not unlike the pax-Britannica of the 1800s and it has embarked upon this in earnest from the mid-1990s and it has a centurys long plan. China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. What am I missing? There is much China could gain from such an overt act as part of a grand strategy of preponderance; to force Australia to rethink its US ties; to gain greater access to Australias resources upon which it depends; as a signal to regional enemies that it is the force to be reckoned with; and to show regional allies it is the most powerful and dynamic actor. In short, Senator Lambies outburst is largely accurate, premature perhaps, but based on British and American preponderance, accurate nevertheless. [14] David Tweed and Sangwon Yoon. Reduction of our options, in order to protect a Foreign Interest and our consideration of the other options open to us, is most likely. To be sure, the US essentially having been sidelined to that of an equal rather than a superior player in the next decade is already being put into place by China. Simply unbelievable that our parliament is now dominated by self serving [insert adjective]. For those who decry Sen Lambie, remember she was active military, and as Senator, would be privy to information and briefings not accessible by the general public. Its attempts to economically coerce Australia into its geopolitical orbit should disturb. Strategic defence expert Ron Huisken labelled it sensational nonsense and rather tacky scaremongering. The relative ease of attacking mainland Australia comes from the geographical distribution of our major industrial and population centres, which are located within Australias littoral. [7] See Francis Fukuyama. This is especially daunting for Taiwan, as it is unclear whether it can get help from anyone else if, or when, the time comes. This time has taken two decades and it is now in that place, or in simpler terms, China is now a major actor on the world stage and moreover, one that is prepared to back its position/s up with military force if need be. Kaye Lee, Nail hit firmly on the head. Who should take the blame for the current dismal outlook. China is our largest trading partner, but we insult it by hewing to the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. China knows America is getting weaker by the day, owns most of the US debt and will demand America to pay back the debt or China will cripple America economically (no more cheap loans). The time of this dominance is coming to an end, as China is on the rise. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. Australia must be willing to invade the Solomon Islands and topple its government if that's what is necessary to stop a proposed security pact between China and the Pacific nation going ahead . Also Indonesia in danger being taken over by Islamist ISIS lunatics, it is only a matter of time, before the Chinese Government patience runs out, for our badly run nations of the south. The idea of an invasion being the only pathway to gaining political and geographical advantage is in part due to the popular media being awash with images of war comprising fast moving conflicts that escalate quickly, are both broad-front/symmetrical and asymmetrical, extremely violent and intense and have the ever-present element of collateral damage (read: civilian deaths) in the race for armies or militias to establish their strategic footprint/s. The Chinese are already quietly invading us in droves, buying up huge amounts of property and investment. Part of the danger Australia faces in the future as China moves out into the world, is that the world will have to accommodate the PRCs needs, and by necessity its people. (Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman) 'War would impoverish us all' Maybe her comment was not as stupid as everybody thought at the time. This guides the question of the optimal future force size, and the subsequent commitment to defence spending, as highlighted by Senator Jim Molan. In accomplishing such occupations and political tenets, the West has been able to decree the way in which the world aside from the Russian Federation and China must operate. This force, supported by elements of the RAAF and the RAN, could defend a specific sector or two of the Australian mainland, providing that other operational commitments (for example, garrison duties in major cities and coastline patrol) are reduced to a minimum. There is however, more to all of these events in terms of them being simply categorized as overt acts of violence that have a focused outcome namely territorial acquisition through force and it is within this spectrum that Senator Lambie alludes to, that can be given a perspective. Time and again it has been demonstrated that invasion does not work. Note: Dr Alexey Muraviev isAssociate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies at Curtin University. Nevertheless, being a minister of parliament does demand a level of tact and discretion that was obviously lacking on the night in question and there has been some repercussions, but other than hurt feelings not much more seems to have eventuated an apology was forthcoming and all appears smooth again. Overall, this has been successful as poverty has fallen from 26% in 2007 to 7% in 2012. Australia ignores this threat at its own peril. Washington DC think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies established its Australia Chair this week. The present Lambie redneck doctrine of Invasion by China or Indonesia harks back to Menzies and his yellow peril election Arrows and like the Menzies arrows Lambies redneck doctrine is just a ploy to stay elected. A superior military air force could, in effect, control all of Western Australias resources in the Pilbara and the North West Shelf gas reserves.. Great article, and I had a nice chuckle at some of the sentiments of those who took the time to comment. Writing in the national business daily, the Australian Financial Review, international relations specialist James Curran asks a different question.What lessons should Australia draw from Vladimir Putin's invasion for managing a comparable crisis in Taiwan? [10] Angus Madisson. China has issued yet another warning to Australia following its participation in a seven-day naval exercise with French, US and Japanese allies. In doing so it is important to differentiate an attack from an offensive strike. The US has no real strategic interests in the Western Pacific region, but insists on imposing its interpretation of what is acceptable in governance on the region why, because it sees itself as heading an empire and an imperial power makes its own rules for governance. A war . Dr. Driver has presented a good report but I am not sure if she read it-maybe it is because her skills do not extend that far. In fact it seems to misfire all over the place jumps back and forth in history . Here is an article by Chomsky that should open a few eyes. This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. "Our judgement at least is that (China's . I think we are in for a few surprises as the old economic and political models falter and global warming becomes a real issue. Finally, the question of possibly fielding long-range interceptors under AIR 6500 Phase 2 as the future component of the Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defence (JIAMD) capability could be brought forward. The four major challenges Australia faces in 2022 There are major challenges the world will have to face this year over and above COVID-19, the first being the management of the rise of China. China is Australia's largest trading partner, making up 30 per . I wonder why the Chinese are bulding the bases in the south china sea now. Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. When it comes to assessing a countrys fighting potential on a comparative basis, a number of major contributing factors needs to be taken into account. Over 90 per cent of the countrys population is spread along coastal areas, with a majority concentrated in a number of urban hubs located on the Pacific, Southern and Indian Ocean sides of the country. To be sure the French before Britain used this method, and since post-1945 the US has followed a similar trajectory with its domination of world markets through the Marshall Plan, the Bretton-Woods agreement which allowed America to essentially dominate the worlds free market, are examples of heavy-handed polity. Recently the Obama administration has gone to great lengths to reassure Australia it is committed to keeping a geo-strategic and political presence in the region with a recent visit by Secretary of State Kerry and a reiteration of wanting to rebalance Asia. Something went wrong, please try again later. particularly June Bullivant. Editorial warns Australia may suffer further economic pain. Military Invasion alert after China crosses line. As he put it, "It's not been an easy decision for me but it is. After all its our back yard. A sad state of affairs. Dr Strobe Driver reports. Firstly, China has insufficient capacity to wage long distance assault operations. Former airforce pilot in CHILLING warning over airstrip AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. In that effort, China "really got a bloody nose, it was not a very successful operation," director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States Bonnie Glaser said. 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AAP/AP/Ritchie B. Tongo. As at 2001 Chinas population comprised approximately 21% of the world. Be afraid and whatever you do, support your government!!! Maybe it would be useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China. And the gold and silver theyve vacuumed up in recent years rise in value more than enough to offset their depreciating Treasury bonds. All of the its fighting elements are in the process of qualitative force transformations, which would continue to provide the ADFs operators with the technological edge. Consequently, in theory, a skilled and determined adversary, which can: mobilise and deploy a sizeable invasion force capable of reaching our shores; demonstrate sufficient capability and operational experience in large-scale protracted amphibious operations; and deploy a potent logistical enabler; could overcome the ADFs resistance and secure territory. 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